2019 Forecasts for the Polish Economy
2018 was one of the best years for the Polish economy and businesses. It demonstrated record-high employment and strong GDP growth. What should entrepreneurs prepare for in 2019?
Business experts have one thought in common: this year we will feel a slowdown. There are signs which show that we have passed the peak of the economic cycle. Most likely, the GDP won’t grow. According to the forecasts, Poland will experience economic growth at the rate of about 4 percent which is one point down from what we saw in 2018.
PMI index which depicts the state and expectations of the manufacturing industry and the services sector is deteriorating. In fact, it fell to 47.7 percent (49.5 in November), while to show improvements, this number should be above 50. This is a bad signal for the Polish industry.
Polish economy depends on the situation on foreign markets. Thus, Germany imports much of Polish goods. But German economy and economies of other EU member states experience slowdown. In fact, 2019 will bring GDP decrease in the majority of countries around the world. Also, we might witness the rise of protectionism which will have a negative effect on industries.
Most likely, we will see the rise of inflation which will influence consumption. A rise of prices on fuel and electricity will affect prices on goods and services.
However, these tendencies are common. The global economy is cyclical and economic growth is always followed by slowdowns. Since 2018 was great for Polish economy, slower development in 2019 is a normal thing.